With increased 2008 precipitation, full lakes and reduced groundwater pumping, Nebraska Department of Natural Resources officials said Wednesday there should be enough water in 2009.

Meeting with members of the Nebraska Republican River Management District Association in Cambridge, DNR senior groundwater modeler James Schneider cautioned that the numbers presented aren't a forecast.

The official forecast of 2009 expectations for the Republican Basin will be issued closer to the end of this year.
"Treat this like the 10-day weather forecast," Schneider said. "It can change. But even if 2009 is a dry year, we will have a good year."

The prediction was based on 2008 conditions. He said streamflows estimated to be in the black by about 36,000 acre-feet were about double that amount. Basinwide, rainfall was about 1 inch above average.
The total water supply crossing the state line into Kansas recently was 276,000 a-f. DNR's Brad Edgerton of Cambridge said that compares with 16,000 a-f in 2005.

DNR's provisional accounting numbers for 2008 show that Nebraska could have accumulated a water credit of 78,059 a-f, under Republican River Compact compliance requirements. "That would bring our five-year running average to almost zero," said James Williams, DNR's Republican River Coordinator in Lincoln.

Harlan County Lake has been about two feet into flood pool. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which manages lake operations, will continue to release 600 cubic-feet-per-second of water for about another 10 days to get the lake to an elevation of 1946 (1,946 feet above sea level).

Edgerton said the corps plans to keep the lake at that level until late winter or early spring and then let it rise to about 11/2 feet into the flood pool for the 2009 irrigation season.

Nebraska officials have no information about 2008 statistics for Kansas or Colorado, Williams said. Those numbers will be released at an information exchange April 17 as part of the compact lawsuit arbitration.
DNR officials are predicting that Nebraska's 2009 compact allocation will be about 241,540 a-f. They anticipate beneficial consumptive use of 255,660 a-f and an imported water supply credit of 17,030 a-f.

That would produce a 2009 allocation credit of 2,910 a-f.

To reach the prediction, Schneider said, DNR used 2008 provisional statistics on groundwater pumping, surface water diversions and streamflows.

Other data used for the 2009 predictions included precipitation at 35 percent, pumping at 80 percent of the 1998-to-2002 baseline, streamflows based on known reservoir volumes and recent trends, and surface water diversions based on what irrigation canals will operate in 2009.

"We believe it is very unlikely 2009 will be a water-short year," Schneider said. "So, a five-year (compact allocation) compliance average looks good."